JobWatch
Labour market decision engine
Forecast-focused view of labour-market risk. The aim is to identify deterioration before it becomes obvious in headline conditions.
Last Updated: 03/04/2026, 7:11:36 am
Current regime
STABLE
Delta vs last month
No score change from the previous snapshot
Confidence
58%
Last update
03/04/2026, 7:11:36 am
Key drivers
1. Is labour weakening?
Not yet. The current live indicators do not show a broad weakening signal.
2. Is unemployment about to rise?
Near-term pressure looks contained based on the current leading indicators.
3. What does this mean for property?
Property conditions remain supported for now. National prices rose 0.3% in March and are up 9.4% over the year, rental vacancy is still tight at 1.1%, and the latest weighted auction clearance rate is 49.7% for the week ending Sun 29 Mar 2026.
Forward risk gauge
18
Out of 100
Stable for nowLeading Indicators
Most important signals
Weighted early-demand indicators designed to pick up softening before the broader labour market rolls over.
Last Updated: 03/04/2026, 4:45:42 am
SEEK job ads
Weight 25%
-0.5%
-2.6% YoY
Latest official release period: January data
Published by source: 18/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 4:45:42 am
Citation: SEEK employment dashboard latest article
Note: Validated against February 2026 dashboard headline and national insight figures.
Open sourceApplications per job
Primary indicator | Weight 25%
-0.6%
LAGGED (T-1)
Latest official release period: January data
Published by source: 18/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 4:45:42 am
Citation: SEEK employment dashboard latest article
Note: Validated against February 2026 dashboard headline and national insight figures.
Open sourceJSA vacancy index
-5.0%
Monthly change
Latest official release period: February 2026
Published by source: 17/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Jobs and Skills Australia latest IVI page
Open sourceABS vacancies
Weight 10%
+2.7%
Quarterly change
Latest official release period: February 2026
Published by source: 02/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page
Open sourceCore Metrics
Employment Signals (Seasonally Adjusted)
Primary signal set. Seasonally adjusted ABS readings are the default view used by the engine.
Last Updated: 03/04/2026, 7:11:36 am
Unemployment rate
Primary signal
4.3%
0.2 pts m/m
Acceleration indicator: watch the last 3 stored readings.
Latest official release period: February 2026
Published by source: 18/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page
Note: Seasonally adjusted metrics parsed from the ABS seasonally adjusted table and key statistics.
Open sourceParticipation rate
Primary signal
66.9%
0.2 pts m/m
Rising participation can increase unemployment.
Latest official release period: February 2026
Published by source: 18/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page
Note: Seasonally adjusted metrics parsed from the ABS seasonally adjusted table and key statistics.
Open sourceEmployment change
Primary signal
+0.3%
FT -30,500 | PT +79,400
Latest official release period: February 2026
Published by source: 18/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page
Note: Seasonally adjusted metrics parsed from the ABS seasonally adjusted table and key statistics.
Open sourceHours worked
Early stress signal
-0.2%
EARLY STRESS SIGNAL
Negative prints are treated as an early stress signal.
Latest official release period: February 2026
Published by source: 18/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page
Note: Seasonally adjusted metrics parsed from the ABS seasonally adjusted table and key statistics.
Open sourceTrend comparison
Collapse or expand the trend series to compare hierarchy and divergence.
Supporting Signals
Decision inputs
Additional context for underemployment, job quality, and public/private divergence.
Last Updated: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Underemployment
Support metric
5.9%
Supporting stress signal
Latest official release period: February 2026
Published by source: 18/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page
Open sourceJob Quality Index
Weight 10%
-0.3%
68.7% full-time share
Latest official release period: February 2026
Published by source: 18/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page
Open sourcePrivate vs Public jobs
Divergence
3.9 pts
Private +3.2% | Public -0.7%
Latest official release period: February 2026
Published by source: 02/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page
Open sourceMomentum
Last 3 snapshots
Recent directional movement for the three most important momentum checks.
Last Updated: 03/04/2026, 7:11:36 am
Job ads
SEEK month-on-month movement across the latest stored snapshots.
Applications
Applications per job, shown as the lagged pressure signal.
Unemployment
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the latest stored snapshots.
Scoring
Decision engine breakdown
Weighted forward-looking contributions used to estimate how close conditions are to a future labour-market problem.
Last Updated: 03/04/2026, 7:11:36 am
Applications per job
25% weight
0
Published by source: 03/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report
Note: Composite score uses live inputs where available.
Job ads
25% weight
2.5
Published by source: 03/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report
Note: Composite score uses live inputs where available.
Unemployment change
10% weight
2
Published by source: 03/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report
Note: Composite score uses live inputs where available.
Job quality
10% weight
2.1
Published by source: 03/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report
Note: Composite score uses live inputs where available.
Hours worked
10% weight
0
Published by source: 03/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report
Note: Composite score uses live inputs where available.
Vacancies
10% weight
4.3
Published by source: 03/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report
Note: Composite score uses live inputs where available.
News risk
10% weight
7
Published by source: 03/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report
Note: Composite score uses live inputs where available.
Property
Property market watch
Live property, rental, and auction indicators used to understand whether housing conditions are slowing before the stress becomes obvious.
Last Updated: 03/04/2026, 7:11:36 am
Current property regime
STABLE
Labour backdrop: unemployment is 4.3%
Property conditions remain supported for now. National prices rose 0.3% in March and are up 9.4% over the year, rental vacancy is still tight at 1.1%, and the latest weighted auction clearance rate is 49.7% for the week ending Sun 29 Mar 2026.
Published by source: 03/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 7:11:36 am
Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report, PropTrack Home Price Index, SQM Research Vacancy Rates, realestate.com.au Auction Results
Note: Property outlook is derived from live home-price, rental, auction, and labour-market inputs.
Home prices (annual)
9.4%
Latest official release period: March 2026
Published by source: 31/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 7:11:36 am
Citation: PropTrack monthly home price index article
Note: Validated from the current PropTrack national home price update.
Open sourceAsking rents (annual)
6.6%
Latest official release period: February 2026
Published by source: 11/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 7:11:36 am
Citation: SQM Research monthly national vacancy and asking-rent report
Note: Parsed from the latest published SQM PDF headline values.
Open sourceRental vacancy rate
1.1%
Latest official release period: February 2026
Published by source: 11/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 7:11:36 am
Citation: SQM Research monthly national vacancy and asking-rent report
Note: Parsed from the latest published SQM PDF headline values.
Open sourceAuction clearance rate
49.7%
Latest official release period: Sun 29 Mar 2026
Published by source: 01/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 7:11:36 am
Citation: realestate.com.au weekly auction results and clearance rates
Note: Weighted from the latest state clearance rates using reported auction result counts.
Open sourceNews
Live intelligence feed
Recent labour, AI-risk, and housing-adjacent stories from live feeds.
Last Updated: 03/04/2026, 7:11:36 am
How Atlassian layoffs show AI job shock is just beginning - The Nightly
How Atlassian layoffs show AI job shock is just beginning The Nightly
Published by source: 02/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs
Open sourceOracle Layoffs Hit Sales, Engineering, Security: 5 Things To Know - crn.com
Oracle Layoffs Hit Sales, Engineering, Security: 5 Things To Know crn.com
Published by source: 01/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs
Open sourceUS tech firm Oracle cuts thousands of jobs as it steps up AI spending - The Guardian
US tech firm Oracle cuts thousands of jobs as it steps up AI spending The Guardian
Published by source: 01/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs
Open sourceTech CEOs Are Blaming Redundancies On AI – But I’m Not Buying It - arielle.com.au
Tech CEOs Are Blaming Redundancies On AI – But I’m Not Buying It arielle.com.au
Published by source: 31/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs
Open sourceEmployers deploy job protection measures amid widespread AI layoffs - hcamag.com
Employers deploy job protection measures amid widespread AI layoffs hcamag.com
Published by source: 25/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs
Open sourceFirst came the AI ‘teammates’, then the layoffs: the new reality for Atlassian staff now looking for work - The Guardian
First came the AI ‘teammates’, then the layoffs: the new reality for Atlassian staff now looking for work The Guardian
Published by source: 20/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs
Open sourceIs Australia headed for a recession? The latest job data paints a grim picture - 9news.com.au
Is Australia headed for a recession? The latest job data paints a grim picture 9news.com.au
Published by source: 19/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Google News RSS search feed for layoffs and redundancies
Open sourceExperts warn property slowdown is already underway on back of latest rate hikes - realestate.com.au
Experts warn property slowdown is already underway on back of latest rate hikes realestate.com.au
Published by source: 19/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Google News RSS search feed for property and real-estate slowdown
Open sourceThe kids are watching the AI job carnage. What are they going to do? - SMH.com.au
The kids are watching the AI job carnage. What are they going to do? SMH.com.au
Published by source: 18/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs
Open sourceTech companies are blaming massive layoffs on AI. What's really going on? - The University of Sydney
Tech companies are blaming massive layoffs on AI. What's really going on? The University of Sydney
Published by source: 17/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs
Open sourceAtlassian AI job losses just the beginning as start-ups look to cut - AFR
Atlassian AI job losses just the beginning as start-ups look to cut AFR
Published by source: 16/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs
Open sourceAI job layoffs are here: it’s time to revive the push for shorter working hours | John Quiggin - The Guardian
AI job layoffs are here: it’s time to revive the push for shorter working hours | John Quiggin The Guardian
Published by source: 16/03/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs
Open sourceStatus and alerts
Regime is STABLE
STABLEComposite score is recalculated from live source inputs on each request.
News risk spike detected
SOFTENINGRecent live news coverage shows elevated labour, AI, or housing stress signals.
Source registry
Alert Log
Derived notifications
Decision-engine alerts derived from regime shifts and threshold breaks.
Last Updated: 03/04/2026, 7:11:36 am
Regime is STABLE
STABLE03/04/2026, 4:45:42 am via in-app
Composite score is recalculated from live source inputs on each request.
Published by source: 03/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News layoffs, Google News property slowdown, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, JobWatch computed metric
Note: Alerts are derived from live inputs and JobWatch threshold logic.
News risk spike detected
SOFTENING03/04/2026, 4:45:42 am via push
Recent live news coverage shows elevated labour, AI, or housing stress signals.
Published by source: 03/04/2026
Fetched by JobWatch: 03/04/2026, 1:22:31 am
Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News layoffs, Google News property slowdown, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, JobWatch computed metric
Note: Alerts are derived from live inputs and JobWatch threshold logic.