STABLEDecision Engine

JobWatch

Labour market decision engine

No primary trigger condition is active right now.

Current regime

STABLE

Delta vs last month

+1 points vs previous snapshot

Confidence

57%

Last update

20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Last Updated: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Composite score gauge

Out of 100

StableTrigger

Key drivers

No primary labour deterioration driver is currently dominant.

1. Is labour weakening?

Not yet. The current live indicators do not show a broad weakening signal.

2. Is unemployment about to rise?

Near-term pressure looks contained based on the current leading indicators.

3. What does this mean for property?

Property conditions remain broadly stable under the current labour-market settings.

Leading Indicators

Most important signals

Weighted demand indicators that drive the decision engine. This panel is intentionally dominant.

Last Updated: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

SEEK job ads

Weight 25%

+0.7%

+1.1% YoY

LiveSEEK Employment Report

Latest official release period: December data

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: SEEK employment report latest article

Open source

Applications per job

Primary indicator | Weight 25%

-1.8%

LAGGED (T-1)

LiveSEEK Employment Report

Latest official release period: December data

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: SEEK employment report latest article

Open source

JSA vacancy index

-5.0%

Monthly change

LiveJobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index

Latest official release period: February 2026

Published by source: 17/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Citation: Jobs and Skills Australia latest IVI page

Open source

ABS vacancies

Weight 10%

-0.2%

Quarterly change

LiveABS Job Vacancies, Australia

Latest official release period: November 2025

Published by source: 14/01/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page

Open source

Core Metrics

Employment Signals (Seasonally Adjusted)

Primary signal set. Seasonally adjusted ABS readings are the default view used by the engine.

Last Updated: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Primary signal. Trend divergence versus seasonally adjusted unemployment: +0.1 pts.

Unemployment rate

Primary signal

4.3%

0.2 pts m/m

Acceleration indicator: watch the last 3 stored readings.

LiveABS Labour Force, Australia (Seasonally Adjusted)

Latest official release period: February 2026

Published by source: 18/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page

Note: Seasonally adjusted metrics parsed from the ABS seasonally adjusted table and key statistics.

Open source

Participation rate

Primary signal

66.9%

0.2 pts m/m

Rising participation can increase unemployment.

LiveABS Labour Force, Australia (Seasonally Adjusted)

Latest official release period: February 2026

Published by source: 18/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page

Note: Seasonally adjusted metrics parsed from the ABS seasonally adjusted table and key statistics.

Open source

Employment change

Primary signal

+0.3%

FT -30,500 | PT +79,400

LiveABS Labour Force, Australia (Seasonally Adjusted)

Latest official release period: February 2026

Published by source: 18/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page

Note: Seasonally adjusted metrics parsed from the ABS seasonally adjusted table and key statistics.

Open source

Hours worked

Early stress signal

-0.2%

EARLY STRESS SIGNAL

Negative prints are treated as an early stress signal.

LiveABS Labour Force, Australia (Seasonally Adjusted)

Latest official release period: February 2026

Published by source: 18/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page

Note: Seasonally adjusted metrics parsed from the ABS seasonally adjusted table and key statistics.

Open source

Trend comparison

Collapse or expand the trend series to compare hierarchy and divergence.

Supporting Signals

Decision inputs

Additional context for underemployment, job quality, and public/private divergence.

Last Updated: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Underemployment

Support metric

5.9%

Supporting stress signal

LiveABS Labour Force, Australia

Latest official release period: February 2026

Published by source: 18/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page

Open source

Job Quality Index

Weight 10%

-0.3%

68.7% full-time share

LiveABS Labour Force, Australia

Latest official release period: February 2026

Published by source: 18/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page

Open source

Private vs Public jobs

Divergence

2.3 pts

Private -0.5% | Public +1.8%

LiveABS Job Vacancies, Australia

Latest official release period: November 2025

Published by source: 14/01/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release page

Open source

Momentum

Last 3 snapshots

Recent directional movement for the three most important momentum checks.

Last Updated: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Job ads

SEEK month-on-month movement across the latest stored snapshots.

Applications

Applications per job, shown as the lagged pressure signal.

Unemployment

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the latest stored snapshots.

Scoring

Decision engine breakdown

Weighted indicator contributions used to calculate the current regime.

Last Updated: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Applications per job

25% weight

LiveJobWatch computed metric

Published by source: 20/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report

Note: Composite score uses live inputs where available.

Job ads

25% weight

LiveJobWatch computed metric

Published by source: 20/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report

Note: Composite score uses live inputs where available.

Unemployment change

10% weight

LiveJobWatch computed metric

Published by source: 20/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report

Note: Composite score uses live inputs where available.

Job quality

10% weight

2.1

LiveJobWatch computed metric

Published by source: 20/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report

Note: Composite score uses live inputs where available.

Hours worked

10% weight

LiveJobWatch computed metric

Published by source: 20/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report

Note: Composite score uses live inputs where available.

Vacancies

10% weight

3.4

LiveJobWatch computed metric

Published by source: 20/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report

Note: Composite score uses live inputs where available.

News risk

10% weight

7.2

LiveJobWatch computed metric

Published by source: 20/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report

Note: Composite score uses live inputs where available.

Property

Property risk mapping

Mapped from the current unemployment rate using the Decision Engine thresholds.

Last Updated: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Current property regime

STABLE

Current unemployment rate: 4.3%

Property conditions remain broadly stable under the current labour-market settings.

LiveJobWatch computed metric

Published by source: 20/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Citation: Computed from ABS Labour Force, Australia, ABS Job Vacancies, Australia, Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index, SEEK Employment Report, Google News AI job losses, Google News property slowdown, Google News AI job losses, Google News layoffs, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News layoffs, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, Google News AI job losses, JobWatch computed metric

Note: Property outlook is mapped from the current unemployment rate using the JobWatch Decision Engine thresholds.

Mortgage stress probability

35%

LiveJobWatch computed metric

Published by source: 20/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Note: Scenario probabilities are computed from live labour, vacancies, and news inputs.

Rent stress probability

46%

LiveJobWatch computed metric

Published by source: 20/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Note: Scenario probabilities are computed from live labour, vacancies, and news inputs.

Distressed sales probability

18%

LiveJobWatch computed metric

Published by source: 20/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Note: Scenario probabilities are computed from live labour, vacancies, and news inputs.

News

Live intelligence feed

Recent labour, AI-risk, and housing-adjacent stories from live feeds.

Last Updated: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

AI / news risk tracker: Spike detected (72/100)

labourThe Nightly20/03/2026

How Atlassian layoffs show AI job shock is just beginning - The Nightly

How Atlassian layoffs show AI job shock is just beginning The Nightly

LiveGoogle News AI job losses

Published by source: 20/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs

Open source

housingrealestate.com.au19/03/2026

Experts warn property slowdown is already underway on back of latest rate hikes - realestate.com.au

Experts warn property slowdown is already underway on back of latest rate hikes realestate.com.au

LiveGoogle News property slowdown

Published by source: 19/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Google News RSS search feed for property and real-estate slowdown

Open source

labourMSN18/03/2026

Atlassian’s AI gamble sparks layoffs and lawsuit - MSN

Atlassian’s AI gamble sparks layoffs and lawsuit MSN

LiveGoogle News AI job losses

Published by source: 18/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs

Open source

labourAFR16/03/2026

Atlassian AI job losses just the beginning as start-ups look to cut - AFR

Atlassian AI job losses just the beginning as start-ups look to cut AFR

LiveGoogle News layoffs

Published by source: 16/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Google News RSS search feed for layoffs and redundancies

Open source

labourThe Guardian16/03/2026

AI job layoffs are here: it’s time to revive the push for shorter working hours | John Quiggin - The Guardian

AI job layoffs are here: it’s time to revive the push for shorter working hours | John Quiggin The Guardian

LiveGoogle News AI job losses

Published by source: 16/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs

Open source

labourThe Conversation16/03/2026

Tech companies are blaming massive layoffs on AI. What’s really going on? - The Conversation

Tech companies are blaming massive layoffs on AI. What’s really going on? The Conversation

LiveGoogle News AI job losses

Published by source: 16/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs

Open source

labour9News14/03/2026

At least 23,000 jobs in tech have been lost to AI this year. Experts say worse is still to come - 9News

At least 23,000 jobs in tech have been lost to AI this year. Experts say worse is still to come 9News

LiveGoogle News AI job losses

Published by source: 14/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs

Open source

labourThe West Australian14/03/2026

Fears AI could cost more jobs as AI use rises - The West Australian

Fears AI could cost more jobs as AI use rises The West Australian

LiveGoogle News AI job losses

Published by source: 14/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs

Open source

labourSMH.com.au14/03/2026

AI: Are bots coming for tech jobs, or is it ‘AI-washing’? - SMH.com.au

AI: Are bots coming for tech jobs, or is it ‘AI-washing’? SMH.com.au

LiveGoogle News layoffs

Published by source: 14/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Google News RSS search feed for layoffs and redundancies

Open source

labourThe Guardian14/03/2026

Will AI take Australian jobs, or is it just an excuse for corporate restructure? - The Guardian

Will AI take Australian jobs, or is it just an excuse for corporate restructure? The Guardian

LiveGoogle News AI job losses

Published by source: 14/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs

Open source

labourtickernews.co14/03/2026

Global tech layoffs rise sharply in 2026, blamed on AI - tickernews.co

Global tech layoffs rise sharply in 2026, blamed on AI tickernews.co

LiveGoogle News AI job losses

Published by source: 14/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs

Open source

ai-riskThe Indian Express13/03/2026

Atlassian lays off 1600 employees in AI push; CEO reveals 3 types of employees safe from job cuts - The Indian Express

Atlassian lays off 1600 employees in AI push; CEO reveals 3 types of employees safe from job cuts The Indian Express

LiveGoogle News AI job losses

Published by source: 13/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:44 am

Citation: Google News RSS search feed for AI job losses and layoffs

Open source

Status and alerts

Regime is STABLE

STABLE

Composite score is recalculated from live source inputs on each request.

News risk spike detected

SOFTENING

Recent live news coverage shows elevated labour, AI, or housing stress signals.

Source registry

ABS Labour Force, Australia

live

February 2026 | 18/03/2026

Citation

ABS Job Vacancies, Australia

live

November 2025 | 14/01/2026

Citation

Jobs and Skills Australia Internet Vacancy Index

live

February 2026 | 17/03/2026

Citation

SEEK Employment Report

live

December data

Citation

Google News AI job losses

live

20/03/2026

Citation

Google News property slowdown

live

19/03/2026

Citation

Alert Log

Derived notifications

Decision-engine alerts derived from regime shifts and threshold breaks.

Last Updated: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Regime is STABLE

STABLE

20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am via in-app

Composite score is recalculated from live source inputs on each request.

LiveJobWatch computed metric

Published by source: 20/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Note: Alerts are derived from live inputs and JobWatch threshold logic.

News risk spike detected

SOFTENING

20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am via push

Recent live news coverage shows elevated labour, AI, or housing stress signals.

LiveJobWatch computed metric

Published by source: 20/03/2026

Fetched by JobWatch: 20/03/2026, 7:05:45 am

Note: Alerts are derived from live inputs and JobWatch threshold logic.